Companies typically spend months or longer planning their product lineups, juggling imports of supplies and raw materials and gauging staffing levels against expected consumer demand. But mounting uncertainty about the impact of the Trump administration’s “America First” trade agenda on the business landscape is throwing a new wrench into product strategies. For heads of product at U.S. middle-market firms, supply chain volatility poses a real threat to production timelines, profit margins and customer trust.
In just one month, as the United States’ tariff agenda unfolded, the share of middle-market goods and retail firms reporting high uncertainty about the business climate tripled—up to 33% in April from 11% in March.
Concerns about supply chain integrity and macroeconomic conditions are weighing heavily on these firms. Even those not directly affected by tariffs because they don’t import goods or materials are feeling the heat. Meanwhile, more than half of middle-market goods firms believe tariffs will harm the U.S. economy. Against this backdrop, many product leaders are turning to analytics for help. One in five is using economic intelligence tools to mitigate uncertainty.
These are just some of the findings detailed in “Caught in the Crossfire: Middle-Market Firms Battle Policy-Driven Uncertainty,” a PYMNTS Intelligence exclusive report. This edition examines how fluctuating trade policies and the current economic climate are impacting product executives at middle-market companies. It draws on insights from a survey of 60 vice presidents of product, chief product officers and heads of product at companies with annual revenue between $100 million and $1 billion. The survey was conducted from April 3, 2025, to April 15, 2025.
Uncertainty Skyrockets Among Middle-Market Goods and Retail Firms
The portion of middle-market goods and retail firms operating under high uncertainty tripled between March and April, spiking to 33% from 11%. Conversely, the share operating under low uncertainty levels plunged to 29% from 37% over the same period.
Middle-market services firms have also been affected by current conditions. For these, the share reporting high uncertainty jumped to 37% in April from 30% in March. The portion reporting low uncertainty plummeted to 27% from 42% in the same period. These figures indicate that while services firms may not be directly affected by tariffs, they may serve as barometers of changes at some of the goods and retail companies they work for, as consumers pull back on spending.
In April, more than six in 10 middle-market firms in goods and retail cite supply chain integrity as an area impacted by uncertainty. Additionally, 38% cited macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates.
For services firms, meanwhile, the area of operations most commonly impacted by uncertainty was fraud and risk management. Many also saw uncertainty affect their competitive standing.
Most Goods Firms Believe the “America First” Trade Policy Will Hurt the U.S. Economy
The “America First” trade agenda has fueled uncertainty for businesses, changing the rules and possibly escalating geopolitical tensions. Sudden tariffs and renegotiated trade agreements or import/export restrictions can disrupt established supply chains. Against this backdrop, companies can struggle to plan long-term investments or pricing strategies.
Specifically, 56% of middle-market firms in retail and goods segments say the Trump administration’s global trade policy will have a negative impact. Additionally, one in two middle-market services firms shares the same sentiment. Conversely, just 44% of goods and 36% of services firms believe it will help. Firms operating under the highest levels of uncertainty are the most likely to believe the policy will be deleterious.
The “America First” agenda is especially likely to be seen as hurtful among firms that have recently struggled financially. Approximately one-third of product leaders who believe it will harm the economy broke even or lost money in the past year. By contrast, just 5% of those who say it will help the U.S. economy fall into this group. It is possible that firms already in a tough spot may be more vulnerable to disruptions, leading to heightened distrust.
Additionally, middle-market firms operating in high uncertainty are also more likely to be skeptical. Specifically, 41% of those who say it will hurt report high levels of uncertainty. Just 30% of those who say it will help say the same. That said, the causal link is unclear. It is possible that doubts about the impact of tariffs contribute to uncertainty. Conversely, it could also be that companies already reporting high uncertainty are more likely to view tariffs negatively.
Many Heads of Product Are Using Smart Analytics Tools to Mitigate Uncertainty
“By using tools like Mintel, NielsenIQ, QuickBooks, Trade Map and supplier dashboards, we monitor market trends, costs and policy shifts, helping us stay agile in product development and pricing,” one head of product told PYMNTS Intelligence through the survey.
Indeed, many product executives at middle-market firms are leveraging forecasting tools to navigate this unpredictable environment. For instance, one in five uses market and economic intelligence tools. A survey respondent explained to PYMNTS Intelligence that they use such capabilities to “advise clients on product strategies that remain resilient amid uncertain policy environments.”
Additionally, 18% of product heads are deploying risk management and scenario planning tools. One noted to PYMNTS Intelligence that their firm uses these to “simulate possible economic shifts and assess product feasibility across conditions.”
Another 17% are using internal data and analytics, including machine learning capabilities.
Heads of products at goods and retail firms are disproportionately likely to use internal data tools. They are also 40% more likely to leverage supply chain and risk management tools than the overall sample. This high reliance may indicate how severely such firms feel affected by changes in international trade rules.
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Methodology
“Caught in the Crossfire: Middle-Market Firms Battle Policy-Driven Uncertainty” is based on a survey of 60 vice presidents of product, chief product officers and heads of product at U.S. companies with annual revenues between $100 million and $1 billion. The survey was conducted from April 3, 2025, to April 15, 2025. The report examines how new “America First” trade policies and the current economic climate are impacting middle-market firms’ product leads.
