Few pocketbook issues strike closer to home for American consumers than tariffs, the cornerstone of the Trump administration’s economic policies. Once the abstruse domain of trade negotiators and economists, U.S. duties on imports from most countries, including major trading partner China, are now a household concern. That the White House’s blanket levies are constantly being revised or put on hold doesn’t appear to matter right now. Many shoppers are planning to purchase fewer goods and services, trade down to lower-cost options or use buy now, pay later to stretch their pocketbooks. But what they plan to do depends heavily on their understanding of how tariffs work, highlighting how the same economic phenomenon can produce divergent responses.
U.S. consumers have strong opinions about the unfolding global trade war. Some continue to see the White House’s constantly shifting duties as support for domestic industry and national strength. These consumers are not terribly concerned about price markups. Others, however, worry about rising costs and economic instability.
The diverging viewpoints reveal deeper patterns about how people think about affordability, job creation and economic security in a time of uncertainty. In this climate, consumer behavior becomes more than a reaction. It serves as a window into how consumers proactively adapt to complex economic forces.
These are just some of the subjects explored in “Consumer Tariff Sentiment: Informed Americans Are Skeptical of the Benefits,” a PYMNTS Intelligence exclusive report. This edition examines consumers’ conceptions of tariffs and how shoppers are changing their behavior accordingly. It draws on insights from a survey of 2,381 U.S. consumers conducted from April 23, 2025, to May 2, 2025.
Consumers Are Staying Informed About Tariffs—and Most Aren’t Thrilled
Most consumers possess at least a basic understanding of this subject. In fact, nearly half (49%) are very or extremely familiar, and another 31% are somewhat familiar. The matter is top of mind for many.
Consumers overall are relatively unlikely to have a positive view of the levies, and the most informed are the least inclined to. As of April, only 35% of consumers expected mostly or completely positive consequences, while 44% expected mostly or completely negative. Notably, however, the share expecting positive impacts had risen 9 percentage points from 26% just two months prior.
Highly informed consumers are the least likely to expect mostly or completely positive tariff impacts, at just 22%. This share has barely increased since February, a sign that could indicate that their understanding of the issue has remained fairly consistent even amid the ups and downs of the news cycle.
Meanwhile, 41% of these in-the-know individuals expect mostly or completely negative consequences. This share is similar to the 38% who said the same in March and the 40% in February. As such, it appears that these expectations, too, have remained relatively steady.
Conversely, 46% of those who are slightly or not at all familiar expected positive impacts in April. This figure marks an increase from the 36% in March and 34% in February who expected the same.
Consumers Feel Differently About Tariffs Depending on Their Values
Last year, the U.S. imported nearly $3.3 trillion worth of consumer goods and components for goods. Given that U.S. consumers’ total retail spending for 2024 amounted to $7.3 trillion, imported goods accounted for 45% of shoppers’ purchases, according to a PYMNTS Intelligence calculation based on Bureau of Economic Analysis and census data. Tariffs have the power to significantly impact individuals’ budgets and bank accounts.
Consumer optimism about the new tariffs varies considerably depending on what they value in their purchases. When given the choice between low-priced or American-made products, 39% of shoppers always or mostly value affordability, a feature associated with imports from low-cost exporter China. Conversely, 34% always or mostly prefer items made in the U.S., and 26% feel each matters equally.
Among consumers who value American-made products, 62% expect mostly or completely positive impacts. Among those who value low prices more, nearly two-thirds expect mostly or completely negative impacts.
Notably, consumers who can least afford to pay higher prices—those living paycheck to paycheck with difficulty paying bills—are more likely to seek out American-made products. Specifically, 41% of such consumers show this preference. By contrast, just 27% of those who do not live paycheck to paycheck do the same.
Broadly speaking, the negative impacts of tariffs outweigh the positives in people’s minds, with the typical consumer expecting 25% more drawbacks than benefits. That is, the average individual anticipates negative impacts in four areas and positive impacts in just over three areas. Consumers who prioritize American-made products are the only group to expect the positive effects of tariffs (in 3.6 areas) to outnumber the negative (in 3.2 areas).
The most common positive impact that consumers expect is an increase in domestic purchasing, anticipated by 52% of those who believe there will be any benefits. Additionally, 49% predict tariffs will create domestic jobs.
The most commonly foreseen negative impacts, meanwhile, include price increases (60%) and damaged international relations (55%). Half of those consumers fear the onset of a recession.
1 in 2 Consumers Expect Inflation to Double Due to Tariffs
Most consumers expect the duties to increase prices at a rate higher than inflation. Approximately half expect this rise to be more than double the inflation rate.
Notably, 44% of consumers who value American-made products over low prices expect prices to rise faster than inflation. By contrast, more than two-thirds of those who value low prices more anticipate such an increase. It appears that, while price-sensitive consumers view tariffs primarily through the lens of their financial impact, those who strongly support American manufacturing tend to focus on their potential benefits, making them less concerned about the price effects. This disparity suggests that what an individual prioritizes as a value directly influences their economic expectations, a mechanism that leads to different interpretations of the same market conditions.
Similarly, consumers who value American manufacturing more than affordability only expect inflation of 4.9% within the next 12 months. (The Consumer Price Index for urban consumers rose 2.3% in April, the most recent reading, compared to the last 12 months.) This expected figure is considerably lower than the average consumer’s prediction of a 6.6% rise—a number commensurate with the most informed individuals’ estimates. Meanwhile, those who value low prices most anticipate an 8.3% increase.
Along the same lines, less than half of those who prioritize U.S.-made products believe companies will start to add charges to their bills to offset the cost of tariffs. In contrast, 55% of consumers overall and 66% of those who prioritize low prices predict the same.
Consumers Are Changing Their Habits to Cope With Price Increases
More than 8 in 10 consumers are taking steps to offset the financial impact of tariffs on their pocketbooks. In fact, the average individual is making nearly five such behavioral changes.
The individuals making the most modifications to their spending habits are those living paycheck to paycheck with difficulty (5.7 on average). Those who prioritize low prices over U.S. manufacturing are making nearly as many changes, averaging 5.5 such actions. Conversely, those not living paycheck to paycheck and those who prioritize domestically made products are taking the fewest cost-cutting actions to counter potentially higher costs.
The most common action to manage spending consists of consumers buying less overall. To prepare for anticipated price increases, 38% of consumers are prepared to forgo purchases. That share rises to nearly half (46%) among those living paycheck to paycheck with difficulty.
Additionally, 31% of all consumers have switched to less expensive brands, and 29% have delayed or avoided major purchases. On another front, 22% have canceled or reduced their subscriptions or memberships. A small but still considerable share—14%—have begun using credit cards or buy now, pay later more.
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Methodology
“Consumer Tariff Sentiment: Informed Americans Are Skeptical of the Benefits,” a PYMNTS Intelligence exclusive report, is based on a survey of 2,381 U.S. consumers conducted from April 23, 2025, to May 2, 2025. The report examines consumers’ conceptions around new tariffs and how shoppers are changing their behavior accordingly. The sample is census-balanced to reflect the U.S. population by age, gender and region.
